Why Habit Trackers Fail (And Why Lottery Works)

In 2001, neuroscientist Gregory Scott Berns conducted a fascinating brain study that revealed a surprising truth about human motivation. His experiment explored how people respond to predictable versus unpredictable rewards.

The Experiment

Berns gathered 25 adults and divided them into 2 groups, each receiving liquid drops while their brains were scanned:

• Group 1: Received predictable rewards (alternating juice or water every 10 seconds.)

• Group 2: Received random, unpredictable rewards (they received fruit juice or water, but at random intervals.)

The Surprising Results

The brain responses between the 2 groups showed striking differences:

• Predictable Rewards: Group 1's dopamine response dropped steadily. Their brains quickly lost interest in the same, expected reward.

• Unpredictable Rewards: Group 2's dopamine levels stayed high. The randomness kept their brains excited and engaged.

The most shocking discovery? It didn’t matter whether participants liked the juice. The randomness itself was enough to keep the brain's reward system activated.

Why Habit Trackers Fall Short

Personal experience confirms this research. I've tried habit trackers for many years and even had a streak of over 500 but I wasn't doing anything productive. The streak was huge so I was dragging it just so I could maintain the streak.

Habit trackers do work initially but lose their motivational punch over time. Why? They're too predictable.

Checking off a daily task becomes monotonous. The brain craves excitement and novelty.

The Lottery's Psychological Appeal

Lotteries, on the other hand, are based on unpredictability. You never know if you'll win a small prize or hit the jackpot. That unpredictability keeps people buying tickets.

But there’s more to why people, especially those with lower incomes, tend to buy lottery tickets, even though the chances of winning are slim.

In the book The Psychology of Money, the first chapter titled No One's Crazy explains another reason. For many, the lottery represents a rare chance for life-changing money, even if the odds are against them.

These two factors—unpredictability and the hope for a big win—explain why poor people keep buying lottery tickets.

Making Habits Stick

To create lasting motivation, introduce unpredictable rewards into your habit-building process. Simply maintaining a streak doesn't guarantee meaningful progress.

Consider the Duolingo phenomenon: Many users maintain impressive 1000-day streaks without truly mastering the basics of a language. You don't need 1000 days to learn the basics of a language. Kids learn at that speed.

A Broader Life Lesson

The same principle applies to other areas of life. Eating the same meal every day gets boring. Even relationships get stale if there’s no variety or excitement unless you spice it up from time to time.

Predictability is boring. Sprinkle unpredictability to keep your brain engaged and motivated. This principle can be used while doing random giveaways, in relationships, and anything that requires gamification. You can even use it on yourself to get work done by rewarding yourself with random stuff.

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